elections

If Kerry loses OH(20), FL(27), and CO (10), and if he wins all his projected easy states (CA, CT, DC, DE, IL, MA, MD, ME, MN, NH, NJ, NY, OR, PA, RI, VT, WA) plus WI, MI, HI, NM, NV, and IA, it’s tied.

Kerry can lose FL(27), CO(9), NM(5), and NV(5) if he wins all his easy states (above) plus WI, MI, OH and one or both of IA or HI. Kerry Total 271-279.

If you’re not an insane spreadsheet-wielding maniac like me, here an EV tally for you to play with.

Given those assessments, you might be interested in tracking OH numbers on their state page.

Though a FL loss is definitely in the cards tonight, the state has an obscene amount of absentee ballots to be counted, so unless someone wins clearly without FL it’s not actually over until they’re counted.

CNN article here. Just in the heavily Democratic Broward and Miami-Dade there are a combined total of approximately 186,000 ballots. Kerry currently holds a roughly 19.5% lead in those counties combined, which would translate to less than a 4,000 net gain from the absentee ballots. He needs over 300k to overtake bush.

Election Resources:

Real-Time NYT Results Map (excellent format, with the ever-sexy “Map by Electoral Vote”)

CNN Results Map (allows you to drill down to the county level – awesome).

AP/C-Span Map

My Due Diligence dot Com (blog-style reporting on Congressional Races)

Vote/Election fraud, vote suppression, voting irregularities, voter intimidation

Election Law Blog

Electoral Vote (backups!!!!!!!)

1:05PM – Ariel, who is working downtown as a poll inspector, reports that Center City Philadelphia polls had more voters by noon than they did in the last Mayoral election.

6:30PM – GOP tries to delay count of Philly absentee ballots. Read the complaint – it’s completely valid. Delaying the Philly absentees won’t have too large of an effect on local elections, but it will have a noticeable impact on the overall state total. This is why i refuse to vote absentee.

6:50PM – PA Results (who knows how timely they’ll be)

Watch out for pages that will announce a predicted winner based on exit polls – as we saw in the case of networks calling Florida early in 2000, nothing counts except the final vote total.

8:05PM – What to Watch For on Election Night (nothing new to me, but a solid read)

9:50PM – Everyone calls NY for Kerry with only 9% reporting. No one calls PA for Kerry with 20%. To be fair, Philly is reporting fairly early, which will skew the state result right up until the last second, but i really don’t think PA is gonna be as close as it’s supposed to be.